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Nationwide: House Prices Now Less Than 10% Below Their 2007 Peak

  • House prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month in May
  • Annual rate of price inflation drops from 10.5% to 9.8%
  • Prices up 12.2% since February 2009 trough
Headlines April 2010 May 2010
Monthly index * Q1 ’93 = 100 334.0 336.0
Monthly change* 1.1% 0.5%
Annual change 10.5% 9.8%
Average price £167,802 £169,162

* seasonally adjusted

Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said:

“The price of a typical UK property rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.5% month-on-month (m/m) in May, following a 1.1% increase in April. The smoother 3 month on 3 month rate of increase rose from 1.1% in April to 1.7%, as February’s fall in house prices dropped out of the most recent three month average. The annual rate of house price inflation dropped from 10.5% to 9.8%, which reflects the weaker pace of increase in May 2010 relative to May 2009. Since reaching a trough in February 2009 – following a drop of 19.3% from their October 2007 peak – house prices have risen by 12.2% and are now just 9.5% below the October 2007 peak.

“Housing market conditions remain characterised by thin transaction volumes and a relative scarcity of properties for sale, despite a slow return of more sellers in recent months. The current supply-demand balance on the market is still consistent with relatively stable to modestly upward trending prices.”

Impact of capital gains tax changes on house prices depends on timing of implementation

“The coalition agreement between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats contains plans to increase the rate of capital gains tax (CGT) charged on the disposal of non-business assets, potentially including second homes and buy-to-let investment properties. Currently the CGT rate on such assets is 18%, and the coalition plans are to raise the rate to a level “similar or close to those applied to income.” Precise details, however, will not be known until the Emergency Budget announcement on 22 June.

“With regard to what the short-term impact will be on the housing market and house prices, the key question is around the timing and implementation of any CGT increase. If there is a significant time lag between the announcement of the increase and its actual implementation, then some second home owners and buy-to-let landlords may decide to sell in advance of the higher rate being introduced. Such a development could lead the supply-demand balance to shift more in favour of buyers and relieve the current upward pressure on house prices. However, it is difficult to know with any precision how many people would bring forward a decision to sell.

“The incentive to try to beat the higher tax rate is most pressing for those who have owned their properties for a relatively long period of time and therefore have relatively large unrealised gains. Conversely, those who bought their second homes or investment property within the last five years have little incentive to sell early in order to beat the tax change. House prices have only risen back to their mid-2006 level and the first £10,100 of capital gains is currently tax free.

“If the new rate comes into effect immediately on 22 June, then supply conditions are unlikely to be affected materially as any potential sellers would not have time to react.

“There are some examples of where tax changes have had a significant short-term impact on the housing market. Most prominent was the March 1988 announcement to end double Mortgage Interest Relief At Source (MIRAS) for cohabiting couples. The implementation of the tax change was postponed until August of that year, which prompted a rush of buyers to try to beat the deadline. The result was a temporary surge in property values, with house prices increasing by 18% between Q1 1988 and Q3 1988 alone.

“However, the most recent change in CGT rates announced in the 2007 Pre-Budget Report did not have any discernable impact on the supply of property on the market. At the time, the existing CGT rates of 24-40% – depending on taper relief and income status – were cut to a flat rate of 18%. New instructions to sell property remained very low even after the tax changes were introduced, although this may also have been due to the very weak market conditions prevailing at the time.”

Monthly UK House Price Statistics

Monthly % Change Seasonally Adjusted 3 month on 3 month % change Annual % Change Average Price
May-08 -3.0 -3.3 -4.4 173,583
Jun-08 -1.1 -4.3 -6.3 172,415
Jul-08 -1.9 -5.4 -8.1 169,316
Aug-08 -2.2 -5.4 -10.5 164,654
Sep-08 -1.8 -5.6 -12.4 161,797
Oct-08 -1.4 -5.4 -14.6 158,872
Nov-08 -0.1 -4.8 -13.9 158,442
Dec-08 -2.5 -4.2 -15.9 153,048
Jan-09 -1.3 -3.7 -16.6 150,501
Feb-09 -1.5 -4.4 -17.6 147,746
Mar-09 1.2 -3.6 -15.7 150,946
Apr-09 -0.3 -2.5 -15.0 151,861
May-09 1.2 -0.1 -11.3 154,016
Jun-09 1.0 1.1 -9.3 156,442
Jul-09 1.4 2.6 -6.2 158,871
Aug-09 1.4 3.2 -2.7 160,224
Sep-09 0.9 3.8 0.0 161,816
Oct-09 0.6 3.5 2.0 162,038
Nov-09 0.6 2.9 2.7 162,764
Dec-09 0.6 2.3 5.9 162,103
Jan-10 1.3 2.1 8.6 163,481
Feb-10 -1.0 1.7 9.2 161,320
Mar-10 1.0 1.6 9.0 164,519
Apr-10 1.1 1.1 10.5 167,802
May-10 0.5 1.7 9.8 169,162


 

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Spanish Banks to put “huge quantity” of homes on market says expert

Spanish banks will have to put a “huge quantity” of repossessed homes on the market over the next few months, said Juan Iranzo, Managing Director of the Institute of Economic Studies (IEE), during the presentation of a new book on the Spanish economy and housing market, sponsored by the savings bank Bancaja.

According to Iranzo, the banks are sitting on 100,000 of Spain’s 700,000 unsold new homes, which they will now have to dump on the market. Thanks to new rules from the Bank of Spain forcing banks to increase their provisions on unsold properties, which took effect in January, Iranzo also expects the banks to drop their prices in search of sales. He pointed out that banks need to improve their balance sheets by selling property, though it is unclear how selling property at a loss will help do that.

What green shoots?

There has been some talk recently in the mainstream Spanish media about an incipient recovery in the housing market, but according to Iranzo the housing sector will get “quite a lot worse” this year, thanks to the recession and increasing unemployment. “The outlook doesn’t favour the house purchases,” remarked Iranzo. He warned that prices still have room to fall, and that interest rates will go up towards the end of the year, putting further pressure on prices.

“Never again”

A glut of newly-built properties isn’t the only problem the market is having to deal with. Demand has also retrenched massively, and may not pick up until 2012 or 2013, says Iranzo.

When does he expect demand to return to the boom levels of 700,000 homes a year? “Never again,” says Iranzo, who expects demand to stabilise around 450,000 homes per year in 2012.

It is important to note that Iranzo is basically talking about the market for primary housing in and around Spanish cities, not holiday homes on the coast. Some experts expect the quality holiday home market to recover much quicker, thanks to supply limits and internationally diversified demand.

Link to original article and more Spanish property information

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USA – Another Big Gain in Existing-Home Sales as Buyers Respond to Tax Credit

Washington – Existing-home sales rose again in November as first-time buyers rushed to close sales before the original November 30 deadline for the recently extended and expanded tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.54 million units in November from 6.09 million in October, and are 44.1 percent higher than the 4.54 million-unit pace in November 2008. Current sales remain at the highest level since February 2007 when they hit 6.55 million.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the rise was expected. “This clearly is a rush of first-time buyers not wanting to miss out on the tax credit, but there are many more potential buyers who can enter the market in the months ahead,” he said. “We expect a temporary sales drop while buying activity ramps up for another surge in the spring when buyers take advantage of the expanded tax credit, which hopefully will take us into a self-sustaining market in the second half of 2010. In all, 4.4 million households are expected to claim the tax credit before it expires and balance should be restored to the housing sector with inventories continuing to decline.”

An NAR practitioner survey2 shows first-time buyers purchased 51 percent of homes in November, compared with an upwardly revised 50 percent of transactions in October.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.88 percent in November from 4.95 percent in October; the rate was 6.09 percent in November 2008. Last month’s mortgage interest rate was the second lowest on record after bottoming at 4.81 percent in April 2009.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said conditions are optimal for buyers in the current market. “Inventories have steadily declined and are closer to balanced levels, which indicate home prices in many areas are either stabilizing or could soon stabilize and return to normal appreciation patterns,” she said. “This means buyers still have good choices but are purchasing near the bottom of the price cycle with historically low mortgage interest rates. Throw a tax credit on top and it really doesn’t get any better for buyers with secure jobs and long-term ownership plans.”

Total housing inventory at the end of November declined 1.3 percent to 3.52 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.5-month supply3 at the current sales pace, down from an 7.0-month supply in October.

Raw unsold inventory figures are 15.5 percent below a year ago. The last time there was a lower supply of homes on the market was April 2006 when it was at a 6.1-month supply.

“Nearly all markets experienced a solid sales gain from one year ago,” Yun said. “The only markets with measurably lower sales were in San Diego, Riverside, and Sacramento, where inventory shortages for lower priced homes are limiting sales.”

For the second month in a row, sales have risen in all price classes from a year earlier. Prior to October, the only consistent gains were in the lower price ranges.

The national median existing-home price4 for all housing types was $172,600 in November, which is 4.3 percent below November 2008. Distressed properties, which accounted for 33 percent of sales in November, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.

Single-family home sales jumped 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in November from a level of 5.32 million in October, and are 42.1 percent above the pace of 4.06 million in November 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $171,900 in November, down 4.4 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales in November were unchanged from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 in October, but are 60.1 percent above the 481,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price5 was $178,000 in November, which is 3.1 percent below November 2008.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 6.6 percent to an annual level of 1.13 million in November, and are 52.7 percent higher than November 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $223,400, down 13.1 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 8.4 percent in November to a pace of 1.55 million and are 53.5 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $140,800, a decline of 0.4 percent from November 2008.

In the South, existing-home sales rose 4.8 percent to an annual level of 2.39 million in November and are 44.8 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the South was $151,400, down 1.4 percent from November 2008.

Existing-home sales in the West increased 10.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.46 million in November and are 28.1 percent above November 2008. The median price in the West was $231,100, which is 4.1 percent below a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

NOTE: NAR also reports monthly comparisons of existing single-family home sales and median prices for select metropolitan statistical areas, and is posted with other tables at: www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata. For information on areas not included in the report, please contact the local association of Realtors®.

1The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 to 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – more than 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

2First-time buyer and distressed sales data are from the Realtor® Confidence Index; prior month first-time buyer data was revised due to a computational coding issue after the questionnaire was updated to obtain more specific breakouts.

3Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982.

4The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported.

5Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price generally is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.

Existing-home sales for December will be released January 25. The next Pending Home Sales Index is scheduled for January 5; release times are 10 a.m. EST.

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Jon Pain addresses mortgage industry on FSA’s mortgage market review proposals

Media Centre

FSA/PN/157/2009
November 2009

Speaking at the Council of Mortgage Lenders’ Annual Conference, Jon Pain, the Financial Services Authority’s (FSA) managing director of Supervision, said it is important to acknowledge that although the mortgage market worked well for many, it failed for a significant minority.  Therefore, the priority must be to move towards a market that is flexible, sustainable for all and works for consumers.

Jon Pain emphasised the FSA’s new bolder approach to regulation, the importance of intensive supervision focused on outcomes, and its commitment to restore confidence in financial markets, to protect consumers and reduce financial crime.

He also sought to address some of the issues raised by the industry following the publication of the mortgage market review last month.  Outlining the rationale for the review, the key points emphasised were:

  • The FSA is not seeking to block access to the market through income verification measures; rather, it expects these to yield various benefits, including a reduction in the number of unaffordable and unsuitable mortgage transactions; a decrease in arrears and repossession rates; improved transparency; a reduction in mortgage fraud; and an improved confidence in, and therefore sustainability of, the market more generally;
  • The FSA will work closely with firms to identify acceptable verification measures and best practice for affordability assessments;
  • Affordability checks will not look to judge how individuals spend their money but it is essential for lenders to do an appropriate and proper assessment of a borrower’s genuine ability to repay;
  • It is not the FSA’s intention to penalise ‘non-banks’ or to stifle competition but is looking to curb the particularly high-risk lending strategies that led to significantly higher mortgage arrears levels; and
  • The issue of arrears need urgent attention and to this end, the FSA will consult in January 2010 on tightening its conduct of business rules on arrears handling.

Jon Pain concluded:

“Just as a house requires solid foundations to be long lasting, mortgages need to be based on a proper assessment of affordability if we are to have a sustainable market.  Everyone who takes out a mortgage should be able to repay it – they should have some evidence that they can repay it and lenders should take note of that evidence.  We want lenders to get back to the basics of responsible lending and we will continue to push the industry where we find firms are not treating their customers fairly.”

Notes for editors

  1. The full speech is available to view on the FSA website.
  1. The FSA regulates the financial services industry and has four objectives under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000: maintaining market confidence; promoting public understanding of the financial system; securing the appropriate degree of protection for consumers; and fighting financial crime.
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Stamp Duty return could have detrimental effect on regional housing market recovery – RICS

A return to the previous bands for stamp duty, when the current holiday is due to end on the 31st December 2009, could have a detrimental effect on the recovery of the housing market in regions that are already lagging behind, according to the latest research from RICS.

More surveyors in the West and East Midlands, Wales and Scotland believe that they will see a drop in activity in 2010 following the end of the stamp duty holiday for properties priced between £125k and £175k at the end of the year. Tellingly more surveyors in Wales and the East Midlands were still seeing price falls rather than rises in the last housing market survey. Meanwhile in the West Midlands, only 3 percent more surveyors saw prices rising in October.

Overall, however, the majority of Chartered Surveyors are not expecting the end of the stamp duty holiday to have a distorting effect on the housing market despite the benefit it has provided first-time buyers. Unsurprisingly it is those working in London and the South East who overwhelmingly agree that it is not forcing more houses onto the market now, and will not lead to a drop in activity once the old system is re-introduced. However, this is more a reflection on the fact that the holiday has had limited impact in these regions as the average house price is well above that of the stamp duty threshold.

Similarly in the North, where the average price is well below the threshold at £116,051, there is less concern about the impact of the end of the stamp duty holiday. However the regions that are most concerned about the impact are those whose average prices sit well within the margins that are directly affected by the holiday. These are the East Midlands (£133,973), the West Midlands (£142,969), Wales (£134,690) and Scotland (£140,175).

At the time of its introduction, we did question how great an impact this policy would have and judging by the fact that only surveyors in certain parts of the country are particularly concerned about the ending of the holiday, it could be said that some areas of the UK hardly even noticed the change.

“However the additional transaction cost is still a worry to many, particularly first-time buyers, and is a threat to the market  in the areas of the country that are still seeing a weak price environment. A return to the status quo will be of benefit to no one, and as such RICS believes that rather than simply reverting back to the old structure for Stamp Duty, the imminent change provides an opportunity for the Government to introduce a wholesale restructuring of the tax. Specifically RICS favours moving from the current slab structure to a marginal system with no homebuyer paying anything on the first £150,000 of their new home.”

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist

The additional questions asked in the RICS October Housing market Survey were:

  1. Is the planned ending of the Stamp Duty holiday on properties priced between £125K and £175K contributing to the higher level of activity in the housing market?
  2. Do you expect this decision to lead to a drop in activity in the early part of 2010?

Further reading:
RICS has suggested the referenced change to Stamp Duty Land Tax as part of its Pre-Budget Report submission to the Treasury. The full submission is available at http://www.rics.org/externalaffairs

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Prime Time For Property Hunters?

HOME SEARCHERS SEIZE CHANCE TO SECURE DREAM HOMES

The competitive house prices and rents seen over the past two years have opened up the prime property market to a wider variety of homebuyers and tenants, says email4property.co.uk, with many more now looking to make their move as the market shows signs of recovery.

While seasoned investors were quick off the mark to snap up prime property at bargain prices as the market showed the first signs of bottoming out earlier in the year, less experienced cash-rich buyers are now looking to act quickly amid signs of sustained price growth. Tenants have also benefitted from price falls in the rental market. Many are now hoping to trade up to better homes in more desirable locations and tie into a year-long contract before prices rise out of their reach.

Email4property.co.uk, the UK’s largest online network of estate agents, has seen a 20% increase in the use of its ‘Premier Property’ search option since August this year. It has some essential tips for those looking to capitalise on current market conditions and enter the prime market:

How much is a prime postcode worth to you?

Even if you can afford to buy or rent in a more upmarket location, it might not always be worth your while doing so. If you are stretching yourself financially to secure a particular street or district, you may not achieve the prestigious lifestyle you had hoped for. Consider how important the locality is to your living needs and whether you might be better off seeking more for your money elsewhere. A studio flat in Chelsea is still a studio flat, regardless of its postcode!

Premier property needs a premier agent

Different agents cover different sectors of the market. Those that focus on prime markets and list higher-end property will also be best placed to advise you. Not only will they have access to the best range of homes in your area, but they will also have the experience and expertise to be candid with you on your expectations and restrictions. Visit the ‘Premier Property’ function for your chosen location on email4property.co.uk. For example: www.email4property.co.uk/chelsea/premier-property

Make sure you are precise and accessible

Be upfront with your agent on exactly what it is you are looking for and how much you are willing to pay. Having opted to go for a prime property you may be unwilling to compromise, particularly if you are buying, but the agent will be able to advise on whether your criteria is realistic. Be as forthright as possible with them about the property you want to view, so that no time is wasted in your search. Rest assured you will not be the only person in your area on the look-out for a prime bargain, so ensure you are also readily available to receive updates from your agent.

Don’t neglect the home-searching basics

While the location and/or style of the property may be sufficient enough for you to make a decision, you should not neglect the standard home searching procedures. Judge the property on all the merits you would in normal circumstances – such as the local amenities, transport links, schools etc. Depending on how long-term the move is, consider how the home will suit your changing needs over time. And of course, do not neglect any assessment of the general state of repair! A bargain priced conversion property in a dream
location is likely to need as much work as any other – it could soon lose its bargain status if significant work needs to be done to make it liveable for the long-term.

Steven Lees, Head of Marketing for email4property.co.uk, comments:

“Those lucky enough to have had sufficient capital to secure a mortgage over the past two years have been in a strong position to capitalise on the low prices available across the market, and many have been able to secure homes that would previously been out of their reach.

“With strong signs of firming house prices and rents starting to improve across the sector, people are now realising that the prime market may not remain open to them for much longer. However, there are still options available and plenty of specialist agents across the
country who are well-equipped to advise buyers/renters on their options and help them source the best properties available.”

For a comprehensive list of estate agents in your area visit: www.email4property.co.uk

– Ends –

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Buy-to-let market grows for first time in two years – Council of Mortgage Lenders

Buy-to-let market grows for first time in two years

Nov 09
Gross lending in the buy-to-let mortgage market grew in the third quarter for the first time in two years, according to data published today by the CML. At £2.1 billion, lending was 10% higher than in the previous three months. The third quarter also saw a similar first increase in two years in the number of buy-to-let loans advanced, from 21,600 to 23,700. But the welcome recovery in buy-to-let lending was from a low base, with current lending volumes sharply lower than their peak in 2007.

The number of outstanding buy-to-let loans grew to 1,205,000, representing 11% of all mortgages by the end of the quarter (compared to 1,180,000 three months earlier). The value of outstanding buy-to-let mortgages increased by 2.5% to £144.2 billion.

Within the buy-to-let market, both lending for house purchase and remortgaging grew in the last three months. As with the mainstream mortgage market, however, house purchase lending was appreciably stronger. Remortgaging capacity was constrained by the unavailability during the quarter of any buy-to-let mortgages at over 80% loan-to-value (LTV). Landlords with existing mortgages at a higher LTV are therefore effectively obliged to stay on their existing lenders’ reversion rates. But with variable interest rates remaining low, it is relatively painless for them to do so and there is little pressure to re-finance.

Low borrowing costs are also contributing to a continued improvement in cases of buy-to-let arrears and the number of landlords facing enforcement action. For the third quarter in a row, there was a decline in the number of buy-to-let mortgages with arrears of more than 1.5% of the balance. In the last three months, the number has fallen from 22,900 to 20,500, representing 1.7% of outstanding buy-to-let mortgages.

The number of properties taken into possession rose in the third quarter, from 1,400 to 1,600, equivalent to 0.14% of all buy-to-let mortgages. Over the same period, however, there was a sharp decline – from 2,500 to 1,700 – in the number of arrears cases in which a receiver of rent was appointed, often as an alternative to seeking possession of the property.

Commenting on the newly-published data, the CML’s director general Michael Coogan said:

“At this stage, the recovery is modest - but the figures show that buy-to-let is here to stay. Buy-to-let lenders are among those facing some of the biggest challenges in raising mortgage funding, so the improved figures are all the more welcome.

“Future demand for housing in all tenures supported by lenders will remain strong, despite mortgage funding constraints and low construction rates. With funding for social housing under pressure, the private rented sector has a strong future. Mortgage lenders will have an important role to play in it, and will continue to help improve choice and standards for private tenants.”

Notes to editors

1. The Council of Mortgage Lenders’ members are banks, building societies and other lenders who together undertake around 98% of all residential mortgage lending in the UK. There are 11 million mortgages in the UK, with loans worth over £1.2 trillion.

2. The CML buy-to-let press release for the final quarter of 2009 will be published on 11 February 2010.

Contact details
Name: Bernard Clarke
Tel: 020 7438 8923
Email: bernard.clarke@cml.org.uk
Name: Sue Anderson
Tel: 020 7438 8924
Email: sue.anderson@cml.org.uk
Name: Sarah Robson
Tel: 020 7438 8922
Email: sarah.robson@cml.org.uk
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Inside Track – Investors suffer as Buy-to-Let backfires

If it looks too good to be true… walk away…
The golden rule with property investment and development is research, research and more research and of course the oft used phrase of location, location and location.

If a new build developer or selling agent offers you a discount from so called "normal price" simply ask yourself why the skilled new build developer or agent needs to do this to sell the property.

Editor

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All 49 flats in this block in Manchester are owned by amateur investors – 37 of them thanks to one property club. Now it is feared that their value has slumped by HALF – or worse – in four years.

Gary Hynes, block of flats in Monton
Liability: Bridgewater view in Monton, Manchester

The get-rich-quick advertising of property investment club Inside Track has persuaded more than 100,000 people to attend seminars in the past few years.

But profits at the privately owned club, which are generated mainly by recommending newly built properties to fee-paying members, are sliding.

And the number of people prepared to sign up for its £2,500-a-time seminars has plunged. 

The firm, Britain’s biggest property club, last week axed 44 staff and announced it would cease offering free taster seminars held at hotels and conference centres. But it is not just Inside Track that is suffering – so are some of its clients.

Falling property values, a shortage of tenants and an oversupply of certain types of homes mean some landlords are losing money fast. Lenders are even turning away some landlords (see below), or forcing them to pay punishing rates of interest.

Inside Track boss Tony McKay admits the market is difficult. ‘There is less demand for seminars,’ he says. ‘We are focusing on existing members who are still buying properties but at a slower rate.’ There are 10,000 members, most of whom have bought membership for a fee of several thousand pounds paid on top of the £2,500 seminar bill and McKay says most are happy. Not all, however. 

Photographer Gary Hynes, 51, and dozens of others are sitting on mounting losses through investing in a block of flats called Bridgewater View in Monton, Manchester.

Before the block was built in 2004, Inside Track urged investors to buy two-bedroom flats it said were worth £140,000 and likely to attract up to £650 a month in rent. It is not known what the properties are worth today, but a two-bedroom flat in the development failed to sell at auction in December for a guide price of £70,000. The flat is now let for £425 a month.

Gary, from Oxton, The Wirral, and other Inside Track members are failing to cover their mortgages with rental income. They are having to dip into their savings to meet their mortgage bills and at least one is thought to have had his property repossessed. 

The development of 49 flats, all bought by amateur landlords, and in 37 cases on the recommendation of Inside Track, has been beset by problems. The location, build quality and security have been cited as just a few of many troubles. Inside Track denies responsibility.

Property analysis

This is Money’s expert analysis
 

Last autumn the block’s managing agent, a surveyor firm from Knutsford in Cheshire, quit, saying: ‘Of 120 developments we manage, we have never experienced ongoing problems of this nature or magnitude.’   

On top of membership fees to join Inside Track, and the seminars they paid for, investors in this block also paid a ‘finder’s fee’ to the property club in return for the recommendation. Gary estimates he has paid Inside Track more than £9,000 in fees, including a finder’s fee of £4,540.

Gary Hynes  

Big losses: Gary Hynes could be £50,000 worse off because of his property investment.

His total losses, including the estimated fall in the value of the flat, exceed £50,000, he says, and losses are mounting at £200 a month. ‘What we were offered was an armchair service where we were to trust the advice given to us by Inside Track,’ he says. 

‘It promised to do due diligence, check out these properties and recommend the best.’

More than 20 investors in the block have complained to the company. It has since paid for a security firm to make random visits to the site but denied any failure on its part.

McKay says that Inside Track relied on other experts for the recommendation and adds that just one out of ten developments meets its requirements as being suitable for investors. ‘We’re communicating with investors and we’ve helped where we can,’ he says. ‘When things go wrong, we do our utmost to put matters right.’

Inside Track will soon publish its accounts for 2007 and these are expected to show a sharp fall in profits and numbers of people at free seminars. In 2006, the number of attendees fell to 25,000 from 32,000 the year before. The number paying the £2,500 fee dropped to 3,400 from 4,400.

Squeezed lenders cut risky loans  

Inside Track’s promises are tempting: ‘How to retire completely debt-free in three to five years’ and ‘how to buy lucrative UK property with little or no deposit’. 

Whether such goals are realistic is questionable, but life has got harder for all property investors, especially those in newly built, inner-city flats. That is because of the change in mortgage lenders’ attitudes to risk.

Lee Grandin of specialist broker Landlord Mortgages says: ‘New-build is an area where experienced landlords do not invest. In a rising market, novices can make money buying anything, but that doesn’t work in a stagnant market.

‘Lenders have been stung and are taking action to protect themselves by refusing to lend or demanding bigger deposits. People who have bought in the past couple of years have been hit hard and, yes, they could struggle to remortgage.’
 

Nationwide Building Society will not lend money to landlords of new properties, while Coventry wants a 50% deposit on such properties. Other lenders to tighten terms on new flats include Kensington, GMAC, Woolwich and Abbey.

Lenders also worry about mortgage fraud. This has mostly involved newly built properties that have been overvalued.

WANT TO KNOW MORE?

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 THE BUY-TO-LET-TEST  

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In a tough market, it’s vital to ensure your property can be a sound investment. >> Take the buy-to-let test

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Buy-to-let test

Does your potential property pass the buy-to-let test, or will you get your fingers burnt? 

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Take the buy-to-let test
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INVESTIGATION: Buy-to-let property seminars 

Other stories:
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 Should you sell then rent back your home?
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 Warning over sale-and-rent-back vultures
 Developers offer huge sums for gardens
 How to buy a home at auction
 How to buy a bargain home in a slowdown
 Inside Track axes property seminars

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