* seasonally adjusted

Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said:

“The price of a typical UK property rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.5% month-on-month (m/m) in May, following a 1.1% increase in April. The smoother 3 month on 3 month rate of increase rose from 1.1% in April to 1.7%, as February’s fall in house prices dropped out of the most recent three month average. The annual rate of house price inflation dropped from 10.5% to 9.8%, which reflects the weaker pace of increase in May 2010 relative to May 2009. Since reaching a trough in February 2009 – following a drop of 19.3% from their October 2007 peak – house prices have risen by 12.2% and are now just 9.5% below the October 2007 peak.

“Housing market conditions remain characterised by thin transaction volumes and a relative scarcity of properties for sale, despite a slow return of more sellers in recent months. The current supply-demand balance on the market is still consistent with relatively stable to modestly upward trending prices.”

Impact of capital gains tax changes on house prices depends on timing of implementation

“The coalition agreement between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats contains plans to increase the rate of capital gains tax (CGT) charged on the disposal of non-business assets, potentially including second homes and buy-to-let investment properties. Currently the CGT rate on such assets is 18%, and the coalition plans are to raise the rate to a level “similar or close to those applied to income.” Precise details, however, will not be known until the Emergency Budget announcement on 22 June.

“With regard to what the short-term impact will be on the housing market and house prices, the key question is around the timing and implementation of any CGT increase. If there is a significant time lag between the announcement of the increase and its actual implementation, then some second home owners and buy-to-let landlords may decide to sell in advance of the higher rate being introduced. Such a development could lead the supply-demand balance to shift more in favour of buyers and relieve the current upward pressure on house prices. However, it is difficult to know with any precision how many people would bring forward a decision to sell.

“The incentive to try to beat the higher tax rate is most pressing for those who have owned their properties for a relatively long period of time and therefore have relatively large unrealised gains. Conversely, those who bought their second homes or investment property within the last five years have little incentive to sell early in order to beat the tax change. House prices have only risen back to their mid-2006 level and the first £10,100 of capital gains is currently tax free.

“If the new rate comes into effect immediately on 22 June, then supply conditions are unlikely to be affected materially as any potential sellers would not have time to react.

“There are some examples of where tax changes have had a significant short-term impact on the housing market. Most prominent was the March 1988 announcement to end double Mortgage Interest Relief At Source (MIRAS) for cohabiting couples. The implementation of the tax change was postponed until August of that year, which prompted a rush of buyers to try to beat the deadline. The result was a temporary surge in property values, with house prices increasing by 18% between Q1 1988 and Q3 1988 alone.

“However, the most recent change in CGT rates announced in the 2007 Pre-Budget Report did not have any discernable impact on the supply of property on the market. At the time, the existing CGT rates of 24-40% – depending on taper relief and income status – were cut to a flat rate of 18%. New instructions to sell property remained very low even after the tax changes were introduced, although this may also have been due to the very weak market conditions prevailing at the time.”

Monthly UK House Price Statistics

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* seasonally adjusted

Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said:

The price of a typical UK property rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.0% month-on-month (m/m) in April, leaving house prices 10.5% higher than a year earlier. Over the lifetime of the last Parliament (May 2005 to April 2010), house prices have risen by 6.7%. This compares to a 13.5% increase in the consumer price index, the official target measure of inflation.

April’s figures show the first double-digit annual growth in UK house prices since June 2007. The year-on-year rate in this month’s figures, however, received an additional boost from the fact that April 2009 was one of the weaker months last year. Given the very strong performance of house prices from May 2009 onwards, it will take monthly increases in excess of 1% for the annual rate of inflation to be maintained in double digits going forward. The smoother three month on three month rate of inflation edged down further from 1.5% in March to 1.1% in April, which primarily reflects the impact of February’s 1.0% decline in house prices. April’s figures leave UK house prices exactly 10% below the October 2007 peak.

For further information please see  April 2010 report (PDF 64KB).

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24 February 2010

Conference time: 0845hrs – 1630hrs

Background

The CML compile and publish a range of statistics on the UK housing and mortgage markets including key data on mortgage lending, arrears and possessions and market segments such as buy-to-let. This unparalleled knowledge and insight into the important role housing plays in the economy is the basis on which this conference programme is built.

The detailed content will help all organisations, not just lenders, operating within the world of housing. The content discussed will be crucial to understanding current and future housing market conditions.

Chaired by Sue Anderson, head of external affairs, Council of Mortgage Lenders

Expert speakers will include:

• Michael Coogan, Director General, Council of Mortgage Lenders
• Rt. Hon John Healey MP, Minister for Housing and Planning
• Peter Williams, housing consultant and Chairman, IMLA
• Steven Hall, director, KPMG
• Bob Pannell, head of research, Council of Mortgage Lenders
• John Stewart, director of economic affairs, Home Builders Federation
• Rob Thomas, senior policy adviser, Council of Mortgage Lenders

Delegates currently booked on include:

• Technical director, Allied Surveyors
• Head of sales, Halifax Intermediaries
• Head of product delivery, HBOS plc
• Team leader, housing regeneration and third sector team, HM Treasury
• Business project manager, Legal and General Assurance Society

Cost:

£275 for members (VAT exempt)
£325 for non-members (VAT exempt)

Our event fees remain highly competitive with prices for members and associates not having increased since January 2007

Location:

The Westbury Hotel, Bond Street, Mayfair, London, W1S 2YF

This event is open to press

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Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of 6.54 million units in November from 6.09 million in October, and are 44.1 percent higher than the 4.54 million-unit pace in November 2008. Current sales remain at the highest level since February 2007 when they hit 6.55 million.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the rise was expected. “This clearly is a rush of first-time buyers not wanting to miss out on the tax credit, but there are many more potential buyers who can enter the market in the months ahead,” he said. “We expect a temporary sales drop while buying activity ramps up for another surge in the spring when buyers take advantage of the expanded tax credit, which hopefully will take us into a self-sustaining market in the second half of 2010. In all, 4.4 million households are expected to claim the tax credit before it expires and balance should be restored to the housing sector with inventories continuing to decline.”

An NAR practitioner survey² shows first-time buyers purchased 51 percent of homes in November, compared with an upwardly revised 50 percent of transactions in October.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.88 percent in November from 4.95 percent in October; the rate was 6.09 percent in November 2008. Last month’s mortgage interest rate was the second lowest on record after bottoming at 4.81 percent in April 2009.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said conditions are optimal for buyers in the current market. “Inventories have steadily declined and are closer to balanced levels, which indicate home prices in many areas are either stabilizing or could soon stabilize and return to normal appreciation patterns,” she said. “This means buyers still have good choices but are purchasing near the bottom of the price cycle with historically low mortgage interest rates. Throw a tax credit on top and it really doesn’t get any better for buyers with secure jobs and long-term ownership plans.”

Total housing inventory at the end of November declined 1.3 percent to 3.52 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.5-month supply³ at the current sales pace, down from an 7.0-month supply in October.

Raw unsold inventory figures are 15.5 percent below a year ago. The last time there was a lower supply of homes on the market was April 2006 when it was at a 6.1-month supply.

“Nearly all markets experienced a solid sales gain from one year ago,” Yun said. “The only markets with measurably lower sales were in San Diego, Riverside, and Sacramento, where inventory shortages for lower priced homes are limiting sales.”

For the second month in a row, sales have risen in all price classes from a year earlier. Prior to October, the only consistent gains were in the lower price ranges.

The national median existing-home price⁴ for all housing types was $172,600 in November, which is 4.3 percent below November 2008. Distressed properties, which accounted for 33 percent of sales in November, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.

Single-family home sales jumped 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in November from a level of 5.32 million in October, and are 42.1 percent above the pace of 4.06 million in November 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $171,900 in November, down 4.4 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales in November were unchanged from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 in October, but are 60.1 percent above the 481,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price⁵ was $178,000 in November, which is 3.1 percent below November 2008.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 6.6 percent to an annual level of 1.13 million in November, and are 52.7 percent higher than November 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $223,400, down 13.1 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 8.4 percent in November to a pace of 1.55 million and are 53.5 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $140,800, a decline of 0.4 percent from November 2008.

In the South, existing-home sales rose 4.8 percent to an annual level of 2.39 million in November and are 44.8 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the South was $151,400, down 1.4 percent from November 2008.

Existing-home sales in the West increased 10.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.46 million in November and are 28.1 percent above November 2008. The median price in the West was $231,100, which is 4.1 percent below a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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NOTE: NAR also reports monthly comparisons of existing single-family home sales and median prices for select metropolitan statistical areas, and is posted with other tables at: www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata. For information on areas not included in the report, please contact the local association of Realtors®.

¹The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 to 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – more than 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

²First-time buyer and distressed sales data are from the Realtor® Confidence Index; prior month first-time buyer data was revised due to a computational coding issue after the questionnaire was updated to obtain more specific breakouts.

³Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982.

⁴The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported.

⁵Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price generally is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.

Existing-home sales for December will be released January 25. The next Pending Home Sales Index is scheduled for January 5; release times are 10 a.m. EST.

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