The number of homes put up for sale in England and Wales increased by 22% in the nine months up until September, compared with a year earlier, Hometrack reports. However, demand from potential buyers failed to keep pace managing an 11% rise, as economic uncertainty both at home and in the Eurozone continued dent consumer [...]
house prices
Homeowners face “new phase of re-pricing”
The number of homes put up for sale in England and Wales increased by 22% in the nine months up until September, compared with a year earlier, Hometrack reports. However, demand from potential buyers failed to keep pace managing an 11% rise, as economic uncertainty both at home and in the Eurozone continued dent consumer [...]
Inverness leads city house price inflation
Inverness has leapt ahead of all other UK cities when it comes to long-term house price inflation, according to Bank of Scotland research. Awarded city status in 2000, the cost of a typical home in Inverness has increased from £68,141 in 2001 to £169,257 today. However, Scotland accounts for nearly half of the UK’s best-performing [...]
City house price premium at record high
Homebuyers living in the UK’s cities are having to pay the highest premiums since 1983, according to new Halifax research. City house prices are on average 7%, or £14,462, above their county average, with premiums at their highest in southern England. Winchester heads the list for the UK as a whole, with house prices trading [...]
Annual house price falls slow
Quarterly figures from Nationwide show average house prices falling year-on-year in eight out of 13 regions of the UK. However, the annual rate of decline across the UK lifted from -1.2% in Q2, to -0.5% in Q3, most regions having seen relatively small price movements in the three months to the end of September. During [...]
House prices down 2.6% on the year
August figures from the Land Registry show house prices in England and Wales down 2.6% year-on-year, having lost ground since July when the annual decline stood at 2.1%. The value of the typical home fell 0.3% during August, to £162,347, with Wales experiencing the biggest monthly dip at -1.7%. On an annual basis, London was [...]
Young Brits keep focus on home ownership
Younger Britons are as enthusiastic as ever about home ownership, with more than eight out of ten 18 to 24-year-olds wanting to get a foot on the property ladder by the time they are 30. According to the Building Societies’ Association (BSA) quarterly consumer survey, 75% of young respondents are highly aspirational, seeing home ownership [...]
Halifax on house prices versus commuting
Workers prepared to commute by rail to London are benefiting from house prices that are 60% lower than if they lived close to their place of work, according to new research from Halifax. An hour’s travel outside the Capital, the average home costs £375,000 less than in the centre of London, more than offsetting the [...]
August house sales bounce back
House prices in England and Wales rose fractionally in August, compared with July, according to the latest LSL/Acadametrics index. However, the monthly gain of 0.3% was buoyed by a 1.6% rise in London property prices and at £219,078, the value of the typical home showed a 2.2% year-on-year fall. The annual rate of decline increased [...]
Low rates give mortgage borrowers £51bn
The UK’s mortgage borrowers have gained £51 billion as a result of low interest rates, figures obtained by the BBC from the Bank of England show. The collective gain might console homeowners watching the value of their properties slide, although some, no doubt, can be counted among the UK savers who lost out on £43 [...]
House prices down 2.6% on the year
House prices fell by 1.2% in August, compared with July, marking the first monthly decline seen since April, according to the Halifax measure. At £161,743 the value of the typical home had fallen 2.6% year-on-year. However, prices in the three months to August were up 1% on the previous quarter and the lender points out [...]
UK house prices face 5% fall
In a report published today, a leading economic forecaster makes mention of a 5% overall fall in UK house prices in 2012. The prediction is included in Ernst & Young ITEM Club’s outlook for the UK banking sector, which notes that the housing market has experienced a “renewed softening” over the past year, with prices [...]
Home ownership to slump to 63%
Home ownership will drop to its lowest level since the 1980s as house prices and rents soar, according to figures published yesterday (August 30)by the National Housing Federation.
A new study commissioned by the NHF, predicts home ownership will fall to just 63.8% over the next decade as a generation is priced out of the housing market.
It reveals that a combination of high house prices, strict lending criteria and the need for a large deposit has made home ownership unobtainable for many people in the UK.
The Federation warned that the situation will only get worse, as it forecasts steep rises in the private rental sector, huge social housing waiting lists and a house price boom.
NHF Housing predictions
- Home ownership will fall from 72.5% (2001) to 63.8% in 2021.
- By 2021 owner occupiers in London will drop from 51.6% (2010) to 44%.
- The north east will be the only region to increase home ownership over the next decade, rising marginally from 66.2% to 67.4%.
- The average house price in England will rise by 21.3% over the next five years, to £260,304.
A chronic shortage of new homes lies at the heart of the problem, with the NHF urging the government to start building. In 2010/11 only 105,000 homes were built in England, which is the lowest level since the 1920s.
However, the government argues it has made more land available for building and is investing heavily in lower-cost homes. Housing Minister Grant Shapps said “I’ve announced plans to release thousands of acres of public land for housebuilding. And despite the need to tackle the deficit we inherited, this government is putting £4.5bn towards an affordable homes programme which is set to exceed our original expectations and deliver up to 170,000 new homes over the next four years.”
Shapps will be comforted by a Halifax survey released in the same week showing that house prices were more affordable than any time over the last 12 years.
Halifax attributed the affordability to lower house prices and reduced mortgage rates, which have fallen since 2007 from an average of 5.84% to 3.85%.
However, the average deposit put down by buyers has increased over the same period from 20% of the property value to 25%. So, whilst lenders are more competitive with mortgage products, it is the level of deposit potential buyers are expected to find and loan to values which are the issues now, rather than affordability.
Land Registry: house prices up 1.3% in July
House prices in England and Wales rose 1.3% in July, compared with June, Land Registry figures show. However, at £163,049, the value of the typical home was down 2.1% year-on-year, with London the only region to have experienced an increase over the last 12 months (up 1.3%). The South West registered the greatest monthly rise [...]
Persimmon reports rise in sales reservations
Persimmon, which is the UK’s largest housebuilder by market value, has today reported a 12% rise in sales reservations in the first three months compared with a year ago. Furthermore, the housebuilder said its order book had risen to £1.14 billion – up from the £565 million at the start of the year. The figures [...]
Hometrack: house prices slip in March
Hometrack’s latest survey shows house prices across England and Wales falling by 0.1% in March, compared with February, taking the value of the typical home down to £153,100. Twenty-seven per cent of post codes registered falling prices leaving 8% recording rises, including London which saw the first uplift for eight months (+0.2%), on the back [...]
House price show largest annual fall since 2009
February data from the Land Registry show house prices in England and Wales falling by 0.8%, when compared with January. The typical home changed hands for £162,215 having fallen in value by 1.7% over a year, the largest annual decline since October 2009. However, London showed a positive annual house price change of 3.2% in [...]
Spa towns command 16% house price premium
House prices in spa towns across England and Wales are typically £38,000 (or 16%) above their county average, according to Lloyds TSB research.
Only three spa towns have prices that fall short of their county average: Epsom in Surrey (-5%); Llandrindod Wells in Powys (-7%) and Boston in Lincolnshire (-15%).
However, Epsom is the country’s most [...]
House prices show 0.9% annual decline
New house price data from the Land Registry show homes in England and Wales putting on 0.2% in January, taking the average value of a property to £163,177.
However, the annual rate of change stood at minus 0.9%, the first negative figure seen since October 2009.
In addition, property sales decreased from an average of 60,898 per [...]
Annual house price growth below inflation
Average house prices in England and Wales recorded a marginal fall of 0.2% in December, to £222,827, according to the LSL/Acadametrics House Price Index.
Over the whole of 2010, house price growth stood at 2.9%, compared to 5.3% in 2009.
However, regional disparities are widening, with annual growth significantly stronger in traditionally high-value areas such as London [...]
Hometrack: house prices down 1.6% in 2010
House prices in England and Wales fell by 0.4% during December, with 36% of postcodes recording declining prices, according to Hometrack.
Overall, the value of the average home ended 2010 down 1.6%, with 71% of the country seeing prices dip on an annual basis.
However, across 15% of postcodes (notably London and the South East) prices [...]
Improved credit conditions to support 2011 house prices
Estate agent, Chesterton Humbers, has joined forces with the Centre for Economics and Business Research to forecast house price movements in England and Wales in the year ahead.
Fired by the near accuracy of its predictions for 2010, the firm dismisses suggestions that public spending cuts, weakening employment and a rise in forced sales could result [...]
Britons maintain confidence in bricks and mortar
Despite the uncertainties hanging over the UK housing market, research from the Building Societies Association (BSA) suggests that many Britons are convinced that the year ahead presents a sound opportunity to enter the market.
According to a recent BSA survey, 43% of respondents agreed that now is a good time to buy property (although down from [...]
Housing and mortgage markets to remain broadly flat in 2011
In its forecast for 2011, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) says it expects low interest rates to underpin “significantly” current house prices, despite low levels of property sales.
The lenders’ body is even suggesting that the base rate could remain at its current level of 0.5% for the whole of next year.
Low interest rates should [...]
Nationwide: House prices edge up further in November
• House prices rose by 0.5% in November, the same rate as in October
• Year-on-year house price inflation increased from 2.0% to 2.7%
• Labour market has so far held up better than expected
Martin Gahbauer
Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said:
“The monthly rate of house price inflation was unchanged in November at a seasonally adjusted 0.5%, leaving the average price of a typical property 2.7% higher than a year earlier.
At £162,764, the average house price is at a similar level to where it was in early 2006. The 3 month on 3 month rate of change – generally a smoother indicator of the near term trend – dropped to 2.8% from 3.5% in October and 3.8% in September.
This suggests that house prices are now rising at a more moderate pace than in the spring and summer months, when they experienced a very strong bounce from the early 2009 lows.
Labour market has held up better than expected but uncertainties remain.
“The outlook for the housing market remains crucially dependent on labour market conditions, and here recent developments have been somewhat more encouraging than might have been expected. With the UK experiencing its longest and deepest recession since WWII, most economists expected unemployment to increase very sharply in 2009, perhaps breaching the psychologically important three million mark by
the end of the year.
While unemployment has indeed increased noticeably, the rise has not been as rapid and pronounced as previously feared.
Based on the latest labour market figures from September, it now looks unlikely that the jobless total will reach three million before the year is up.
“Part of the explanation for why unemployment has not risen to the levels implied by the recession’s depth is that in many cases employers have opted to reduce working hours and pay rather than make employees redundant. This is reflected in rising part-time employment at the expense of full-time employment , and record low growth in average earnings.
The strategy of cutting hours and pay rather than headcount probably reflects a fear among many employers that they could find themselves short of labour when the economy recovers, thus leaving them less competitive in the longer term. Whether this strategy is sustainable will depend on how quickly the economy recovers.
If output is too slow to recover, then firms may find it necessary to reduce their payrolls further in order to improve productivity and profitability.
Another reason to remain cautious about the future outlook for employment is that the public sector has not yet experienced any significant job losses, but presumably will begin to do so when fiscal policy is tightened from next year onwards.
“Despite continued uncertainties about the future, the better than expected performance of the labour market has probably contributed to the surprise rebound in house prices this year. Even though workers who have been forced from full-time employment into part-time work will have experienced a reduction in income, the impact has been less severe than it would have been if they had lost their jobs completely.
Together with the fact that mortgage rates have fallen sharply as a result of base rate cuts, this has meant that far fewer borrowers have
fallen into arrears than would normally be the case in such a deep recession. In fact, the percentage of borrowers in arrears across the mortgage
industry has even edged down slightly in the most recent quarterly figures (chart 3). As such, the downward pressure on house prices from distressed sales has so far been significantly lower than expected.”
Martin Gahbauer,
Chief Economist
Tel: 01793 655434
martin.gahbauer@nationwide.co.uk
CFA Roy Beale
External Communications Officer
Tel: 01793 655689
roy.beale@nationwide.co.uk
Notes:
Indices and average prices are produced using Nationwide’s updated mix adjusted House Price Methodology which was introduced with effect from the first quarter of 1995. The data are drawn from Nationwide’s house purchase mortgage lending at the post survey approvals stage. Price indices are seasonally adjusted using the US Bureau of the Census X12 method. Currently the calculations are based on a monthly data series starting from January 1991. Figures are recalculated each month which may result in revisions to historical data.
The Nationwide Monthly House Price Index is prepared from information which we believe is collated with care, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness.
We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the whole or any part of the Index at any time, for regulatory or other reasons.
Persons seeking to place reliance on the Index for their own or third party commercial purposes do so entirely at their own risk. All changes are nominal and do not allow for inflation.
More information on the house price index methodology along with time series data and archives of housing research can be found at www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi
